China had fewer babies in 2025 than in any year since 1949. Roughly 7.9 million newborns, down from about 9.5 million in 2024. And yet the maternity and baby market keeps growing in value. That contradiction is the whole story for any foreign brand looking at this category today.
I have watched this market from Shanghai since 2012. The playbook that worked when everyone was chasing volume no longer works. The parents who are left spend more, check more, and trust less. This article explains what actually sells in 2026 and where an imported brand still has room to win.
Written by Olivier Verot, founder of Gentlemen Marketing Agency. I have run China launches for infant formula, diaper and baby-care brands since 2012, and I sit in the WeChat parent groups where these products get recommended or killed. LinkedIn.
Fewer babies, more money per child
The birth number is the headline everyone reads. It is real. China’s population fell again in 2025, down about 3.39 million to roughly 1.405 billion. If your business plan assumed a growing pool of babies, tear it up.
Now read the second number. The overall maternity and baby market reached about 4.4 trillion RMB in 2024, up 8% year on year, according to Qianzhan. The online slice keeps taking share: the maternity and baby e-commerce market hit 223.78 billion RMB in 2025, up 12.6%, per China Briefing.
How does a market grow when its customers disappear? One reason. Parents pour more into a single child. The one-child household concentrates spending. Grandparents chip in. The result is a value story, not a volume story. Premium and ultra-premium tiers grow while the cheap middle gets squeezed.
| Indicator | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Newborns 2025 vs 2024 | ~7.9M vs ~9.5M | NBS / press |
| Total maternity & baby market 2024 | 4.4 trillion RMB (+8%) | Qianzhan |
| Maternity & baby e-commerce 2025 | 223.78 billion RMB (+12.6%) | China Briefing |
| Infant formula market 2025 | ~129 billion RMB (world’s largest) | China Briefing / DairyReporter |
| Online channel share of category | 20.3% (2015) to 31.2% (2023) | Chyxx / iResearch |
| Imported infant formula, Jan-Sep 2025 | 162,000 tonnes (+6.7%) | Sina Finance |
Read the table top to bottom and the strategy writes itself. Sell fewer units at a higher price, to a parent who researches like a procurement manager.
Where the sales actually happen in 2026
Vertical apps like Babytree still matter for content and community. But the transaction has moved. Most volume now runs through Tmall, JD and, increasingly, Douyin. Parents research on one screen and buy on another.
Tmall and Tmall Global remain the trust anchor for imported formula and premium care. The flagship store is where a Chinese mother checks that your brand is real, licensed and not a fake. JD wins on logistics and cold-chain for anything perishable. It is the platform parents trust for fast, verified delivery.
Douyin is the fastest mover. Its interest e-commerce model pushes a product into a feed before the parent has searched for it. A midwife doing a live session, a mother demoing a bottle warmer, a doctor explaining formula stages. The video creates the demand and the cart sits one tap below. Content e-commerce in this category has grown around 76% by some domestic estimates. We wrote about the broader shift here: why brands are leaving Tmall for Douyin.
Lower-tier cities are the growth engine now. Third and fourth-tier markets drove much of the online increase, with local estimates near 25% growth in 2025. First-tier parents already buy premium. The new money is in a Chengdu or Wuhan mother trading up to an imported brand for the first time.
Imported infant formula and the rules that protect you
Infant formula is the emotional centre of this market. It is also the most regulated. That regulation is not your enemy. It is your moat.
China’s formula market was worth about 129 billion RMB in 2025, the largest in the world. Imports keep rising: 162,000 tonnes of infant formula came in during the first nine months of 2025, up 6.7% year on year, and foreign brands like Danone, FrieslandCampina, a2 and Nestlé all reported growth, some with double-digit formula numbers, per Sina Finance.
The gatekeeper is the GB formula registration. To sell infant formula in China you need your recipe registered under the new national standard. As of 2025, 1,287 formulas from 157 companies had passed, including 262 recipes from 37 foreign companies across 12 countries. New Zealand, the Netherlands, France, South Korea and Denmark lead the foreign list. From December 2025 the rules extended to infant liquid milk too.
Read that as a barrier that works for you. Registration is slow and expensive. Once you are through, the shelf is far less crowded than the population would suggest. The regulator also cleared human milk oligosaccharides (HMO) for use in Chinese formula, which opens a genuine premium claim for brands with the science behind it.
Safety and traceability are the real purchase driver
Ask a Chinese parent why they buy imported and they will not say “quality” first. They will say safety. The 2008 melamine scandal is old news to the West. In China it still shapes how a young mother reads a formula tin.
So traceability sells. Where was the milk sourced. Which factory. What batch. A QR code that shows the supply chain does more for conversion than a discount. Brands that show the farm, the audit and the customs record win the anxious parent. Brands that only show a happy baby lose them.
“It’s better to pay more than to buy the wrong stuff.” That old Chinese mother’s saying still runs the category. Price is not the fight you want. Perceived safety is.
WeChat parent groups and Xiaohongshu run the decision
Before a mother buys, she asks. She asks in a WeChat group of other mothers, and she checks Xiaohongshu. This is the part foreign marketers still underrate.
The original version of this article told the story of Ma Ma Lian Meng, a Mom Alliance that grew to more than 400,000 users through closed, invite-only WeChat groups. That model still explains everything about how trust moves here. Recommendations inside a private circle feel sincere. Fake reviews get filtered out by people who know each other. A public account cannot buy that closeness.
Today we call it private domain. A brand builds its own WeChat groups, staffed by a real advisor, sometimes a nurse or a nutritionist. The parent asks a question at 11pm and gets a human answer. That relationship, not a banner ad, is what makes her rebuy formula every month. Retention lives in the group.
Xiaohongshu is where discovery happens. A mother searches “which formula for a sensitive stomach” and reads twenty honest-looking notes before she trusts anything. KOC content, ordinary parents sharing real use, converts better than a celebrity here. Investment in Xiaohongshu creators grew about 26.7% year on year in 2025, faster than Douyin’s 14.5%, by one securities estimate. If you are not seeded on Xiaohongshu, you do not exist in the research phase.
One more 2026 layer. Parents now ask AI assistants like DeepSeek and Doubao for product advice. Generative engine optimisation, getting your brand and its safety story into the answers these models give, is the new front of the funnel. It is early, and that is exactly why it is cheap to win now.
Where a foreign brand keeps its edge
Domestic brands have caught up on price, distribution and lower-tier reach. They have not fully caught up on two things: perceived safety and premium credibility. Domestic labels still hold under 30% of the super-premium formula tier. That gap is your opening.
So a foreign brand should not fight on the shelf price. You will lose. There is always a cheaper local option, and it now ships faster. Fight on origin, clinical proof, traceability and a premium story a parent is proud to be seen buying. Your product may not be the cheapest. It should be the most recommended inside the WeChat group.
A Swedish brand that stopped selling on price
Malin, a Swedish baby-care brand, came to us after a flat first year in China. Organic skincare and bath products for infants. Good formulas, Scandinavian design, real EU certification. On Tmall they were doing about 40,000 RMB a month and losing money on ads. They had tried to win with promotions and coupons, matching local prices. It failed. They looked like a small, unknown brand competing on the one axis where locals always win.
We rebuilt the story around safety and origin, not discounts. Every product page led with the Swedish source, the ingredient list a parent could actually read, and third-party certification. We seeded 60 Xiaohongshu KOC posts from real Chinese mothers testing the products on their own babies, focused on eczema and sensitive skin. We opened a private WeChat group with a childcare advisor answering questions daily. On Douyin we ran calm, non-hard-sell lives showing the bath routine.
The safety angle worked because it matched what the anxious parent was already searching for. Within nine months monthly Tmall revenue moved from about 40,000 to roughly 260,000 RMB, and the WeChat group drove a repeat purchase rate above 30%. No 10x-in-a-month miracle. Just the right story on the right platforms, aimed at the parent who will pay more to feel safe.
How a new brand enters this market
Start with the competitors, especially the big brands and the strong locals. Your brand needs a clear characteristic and a reason to exist beyond “imported.” Imported alone stopped being a selling point years ago.
Do not start a price war. You will lose, because there is always a cheaper brand in the mainland market. Build a product with real quality and a safety story, so parents recommend it inside their private network. Then get the compliance right early. If you sell formula, budget time and money for GB registration before anything else. If you sell cross-border, learn the new CBEC rules, which we cover in our 2026 CBEC law guide.
Then sequence the channels. Seed Xiaohongshu for discovery. Build a Tmall Global or JD flagship for trust. Run Douyin lives to create demand. Hold retention in a private WeChat group. That order matters more than the budget.
Further reading:
- Baby Products Market in China: Baby Care Trends 2026
- Keys to Market Baby Care Products in China
- Baby Bottles Market in China
- Danone’s Digital Marketing Strategy in China
FAQ
Is the maternity and baby market in China still worth entering with birth rates falling?
Yes, if you sell premium. Volume is shrinking, but value per child is rising because parents concentrate spending on one baby. The e-commerce slice grew 12.6% in 2025 to 223.78 billion RMB. The opportunity is not more babies. It is a bigger share of wallet per family, especially in the premium and safety-driven tiers where foreign brands still lead.
Do I need to register my infant formula before selling in China?
Yes. Infant formula must pass GB national-standard registration before it can be sold, including through cross-border channels for full market access. Only 262 foreign recipes had cleared as of 2025. It is slow and costly, but that same barrier keeps the shelf less crowded once you are in. Start the process early, before you spend on marketing.
Which platform should a foreign baby brand start with?
Start with Xiaohongshu for discovery and a Tmall Global or JD flagship for trust. Xiaohongshu is where parents research before they buy. Tmall and JD are where they confirm you are legitimate and complete the purchase. Add Douyin lives once you have content and stock to support them. Private WeChat groups come next, to hold repeat buyers of consumable products like formula and diapers.
Why do Chinese parents prefer imported baby products?
Safety perception, mostly. Past domestic scandals still shape how young parents read a label, so foreign origin reads as safer. Imports also carry premium and clinical credibility that local brands have not fully matched, especially in super-premium formula where domestic labels hold under 30%. Traceability, certification and clear sourcing turn that perception into a sale.
Gentlemen Marketing Agency helps foreign maternity and baby brands enter China. We handle GB registration guidance, Tmall and JD flagship setup, Xiaohongshu and Douyin seeding, and private WeChat retention. We know how anxious parents choose here, because we sit in the groups where they decide. Contact us to talk about your launch.
